Just posting a few notes on early odds and picks for the 2013 running of the Kentucky Derby. Of course, the post position draw on Wed morning could easily turn the entire race on its head, there are at least 2 horses to put faith in either way. Revolutionary is currently set at 15/2, making him an enormous value pick in my opinion. The fact that he’s a Todd Pletcher trained horse running at Churchill would make the value decent enough on its own. 3-time Derby winner Calvin Burrell’s presence aboard the 3 year old puts the value through the roof.
There may be only one other horse in the field with more mojo on his side at the moment. Goldencents is the recently crowned winner of the Santa Anita Derby, making his pedigree as a true contender complete. Being partially owned by Rick Pitino isn’t hurting the whole “horse of destiny” idea either. Goldencents is also going off at 15/2 as of Sunday.
Depending on the pace of the race, another good value could be Mylute at 35/1. He’s a strong horse, and could do very well if the pace is slower. Stronger horses are also the best bets for triple crown contenders. Fine-edge speedsters usually meet their demons on the mile and a half oval at Belmont. Mylute’s strength could serve him well if he draws the rail, or finds himself bogged down in traffic.
Verrazano is the current odds favorite at 4/1, and will attempt to become only the second horse to win the Derby after not racing at all as a 2 year old. He is also the only undefeated horse in the field. Verrazano comes off a win at the Wood Memorial over fellow Derby contenders Revolutionary and Vyjack, however, he will have to fight the poor history of Wood winners at the Derby. He has proven to be a strong finisher lately, which is always a plus for Derby runners.
My money is still on Revolutionary at this point. Burrell has been skimming him around the rail at Churchill this weekend, and looking very strong according to all accounts. Having a jockey that is comfortable anywhere on the track, and who, in fact, thrives in the one position most riders dread, along the rail, has to give anyone holding a Revolutionary ticket on Saturday very confident. The field is actually one of the stronger ones we’ve seen in past years, and could be pretty wide open once the gates are pulled. Again, we’ll know more after Wed morning, but the top contenders should be comfortable just about anywhere along the line.
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